PROJECT OBSERVER
ISSUE #020
September 25, 2026

Good evening, Construction Pros.

Material cost records are breaking while construction unemployment falls to a number the industry has never hit before.

  • Lilly plants $6.5B in Houston. The biggest pharma groundbreaking in Texas history calls for 4,000 specialized craft workers doing work most commercial projects never see.
  • Starts fell 25% in August. Groundbreakings dropped 24.8% month-over-month. The big announcements are not always on the ground yet.
  • Diesel at an all-time record. The national average hit $6.53 per gallon this week, up 23% since July. Every freight carrier is adding surcharges.

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📊 MARKET PULSE

JOB OPENINGS
326,000
+28K MoM | Near 2-yr high
HIRING RATE
4.4%
Up 0.6 pts MoM | Rebound from 2026 low
QUIT RATE
1.9%
Up 0.1 pts MoM | Above 2024-25 avg
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
3.1%
Down 0.6 pts MoM | All-time record low
DIESEL (NATIONAL AVG)
$6.529
+23% since July | All-time U.S. record
STEEL MILL PRODUCTS
+22.5%
YoY | Sec. 232 tariff: 50% active
NONRES. INPUT PRICES
+8.8%
YoY | +1.2% MoM | Broad commodity surge
ALUMINUM MILL SHAPES
+40.5%
YoY | Sec. 232 tariff: 50% active

LABOR PULSE

Construction is a seller's market for skilled labor, full stop. The 3.1% unemployment rate is a record low, 326,000 jobs sit unfilled, and the hiring rate jumped to 4.4%, showing contractors are actively bringing crews on. But the 1.9% quit rate tells you workers are shopping competing offers. If you are running a crew or managing subs right now, retention matters more than recruiting. Losing a certified welder or licensed journeyman to a regional competitor can kill your inspection schedule and trigger compounding slip.

THE TAKEAWAY

Any fixed-price bid without escalation language is a liability right now. Aluminum is up 40%, copper wire up 27%, and diesel just hit an all-time record. Add commodity index anchors to every subcontract and shorten your proposal validity window to 14 days maximum. At these input cost levels, a 30-day open quote is a free call option for your owner at your expense.

🏗️ THE BIG MOVES

ELECTRICAL MILLWRIGHT CIVIL

NextEra and Brookfield Stack a $2B Data and Power Campus on Kentucky's Old Uranium Site

NextEra Energy Resources and Brookfield Asset Management are developing an estimated $2 billion energy and AI campus at the former Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant in western Kentucky, integrating a 1.8 GW data center with a 2.0 GW gas plant and a 2.6 GW battery storage system. At peak buildout, the site draws 1,500 to 2,200 craft workers spanning heavy civil operators, high-voltage linemen, substation technicians, millwrights, and mechanical pipefitters. With site prep moving in late 2026 and phased construction extending through 2030, Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois, and Middle Tennessee are looking at a multi-year sustained pull for power and mission-critical building trades.


MILLWRIGHT MEP

Sila Nanotechnologies Scales Battery Anode Plant to $1.4B at Moses Lake, Washington

TSMC

IMAGE: Sila Nanotechnologies

Sila Nanotechnologies is expanding its silicon-carbon anode manufacturing facility in Moses Lake, Washington in a $1.4 billion capital program that scales production to 10 GWh annually, with an ultimate target of 250 GWh by 2031. The build requires heavy rigging, precision equipment setting, chemical reactor installation, and extensive gas handling systems, with 800 to 1,200 industrial mechanics expected at peak. This is specialized work: millwrights, riggers, process pipefitters, and process control integrators building a battery materials plant from the foundation up.


ELECTRICAL CIVIL

Xcel and DOE's $1.2B Colorado Project Will Connect the Eastern and Western Grids

Xcel Energy Colorado and the Colorado Energy Office secured a $250 million DOE SPARK grant paired with $950 million in private capital to fund the CO2TX project, connecting the Lamar and Sun Valley substations along a critical East-West grid seam in southern Colorado. The scope calls for 500 to 750 certified high-voltage linemen, substation steel erectors, protection and control technicians, and civil earthwork crews, with structure erection scheduled for 2027. This is transmission work that does not come around often: connecting two separate U.S. power networks with advanced sensor integration and full reconductoring across southern Colorado.

🔦 PROJECT SPOTLIGHT

MEP ELECTRICAL MILLWRIGHT

Eli Lilly's $6.5B Houston Plant: The Most Technically Complex Industrial Build in Texas History

Eli Lilly broke ground September 21 on a $6.5 billion active pharmaceutical ingredient manufacturing complex at Generation Park in Houston, a 236-acre campus where Bechtel will lead five years of engineering, procurement, and construction to produce GLP-1 weight-loss medication and other small-molecule therapeutics.

Process pipefitters will execute high-purity orbital welding on 316L stainless steel tubing throughout the facility, working to ASME Bioprocessing Equipment standards with helium leak detection and cGMP validation logs on every weld. Cleanroom HVAC mechanics will calibrate multi-stage pressure cascades across ISO 5 through ISO 7 suites, while industrial electricians run explosion-proof conduit through chemical processing bays and connect thousands of field sensors to programmable logic controllers.

WHY IT MATTERS

Pharmaceutical manufacturing at this scale requires quality documentation you will not find on a typical commercial site: cGMP compliance logs, helium leak test records, and ISO cleanroom validation on every system. If you are a certified pipefitter, licensed electrician, or process HVAC mechanic, this is five years of Gulf Coast work at premium wages. With 4,000 peak craft workers and Bechtel managing the build, expect structured subcontracting packages and strong union trade relationships across the major scopes.

The facility targets first production in 2030, with Eli Lilly partnering with Texas universities to build a sustained bioprocessing craft and technical workforce pipeline across the Gulf Coast.

⚡ QUICK HITS

TSMC

IMAGE: Bechtel’s headquarters in Reston, Va. -constructiondive.com

Bechtel files WARN for 200 workers. After failing to agree on construction phase terms, Bechtel exited TerraPower's Natrium nuclear project in Kemmerer, Wyoming and filed a layoff notice covering 200 headquarters personnel. Most impacted engineers and craft specialists are expected to redeploy to other Bechtel nuclear sites globally.


Fed raises rates for the first time since 2023. The FOMC voted unanimously to hike 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, the first increase since July 2023. Higher prime rates are tightening construction loan costs and straining developer pro formas heading into Q4.


California passes 7 data center oversight laws. Governor Newsom signed legislation giving municipalities expanded authority over data center projects, requiring environmental reviews, energy and water disclosures, and mandatory grid infrastructure contributions. Pre-construction timelines for civil and MEP crews in California may extend significantly.


Virginia restricts data center permitting. Governor Spanberger's executive order requires hyperscale developers to demonstrate grid compatibility and fund transmission upgrades before receiving state subsidies or expedited permits. Field crews in the mid-Atlantic may see pre-construction schedule shifts on active data center programs.


FAA releases $1.1B for airport upgrades. The FAA announced Airport Improvement Program grants targeting runway repaving, terminal expansions, and communications infrastructure nationwide. Direct federal disbursements generate prevailing-wage civil and paving work for heavy contractors across multiple regions.

🔢 ONE NUMBER

-24.8%

U.S. construction groundbreakings fell 24.8% in August, even as major project announcements continue to dominate the headlines.

🔧 THE TOOL

This week's PPI data shows aluminum mill shapes are up 30% to 40% year-over-year, pushed there by active Section 232 tariffs, and that cost exposure lands directly on your curtain wall, storefront, roofing, and window scopes. Add a BLS WPU102502-linked escalation clause to any subcontract where aluminum is a primary cost driver. Set the baseline index value at your bid date, define a 5% buffer before any adjustment triggers, and calculate the adjustment when purchase orders are executed, not at submittal.

Include a corresponding schedule relief clause if mill lead times extend beyond baseline quotes. This is different from a general escalation clause: tying the adjustment to a specific BLS commodity series gives you a documented, defensible position when the owner pushes back on a change. At 40% year-over-year increases, any aluminum subcontract without this language is already underwater.

📚 FURTHER READING

Construction Dive: Bechtel Splits With Bill Gates-Backed Nuclear Project, Files Layoff Notice: what happens to craft workforce when a major GC exits a megaproject mid-development.

ENR: 3Q 2026 Cost Report: Data Centers Spur Increase in Starts as Residential, Industrial Work Declines: the full cost and starts picture behind this week's groundbreaking data.

Record diesel, record-low unemployment, and the biggest pharmaceutical groundbreaking in Texas history: that is your week in construction. What are fuel surcharges doing to your bids right now? Hit reply. 🏗️

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